21 November 2008

What now?

Asia not behaving as I would have expected, for sure. Seems like a classic weekend clearing with assetshorts getting squeezed. We have seen similar tendencies in Europe and could end the day on that note in US. However, beyond the noise, we still have a bear case.
Yesterdays news that Latvia was in talks with the IMF sounds like a clear and present danger that they will let their currency float before long.
Hence, buy puts on the Swedish banks , sell the Sek.
We will probably see further rate cuts globally on the back of Switzerlands 100bp cut yesterday. Plus IMF money being cascaded left, right and center. This will create violent short squeeze rallies. On top of that, Citigroup wants a short selling ban. Anyway, when the dust has settled, I believe there is a quite high risk that IMF and others will have come up short vs the economic realities.
Use options, dip your toes buying calls for short asset shortsqueezes. Reposition bearish again post it.
When it comes to Swedish banks, just position short via options. Do it now, despite the short squeeze risk. Since the Baltics is Swedens own mini subprime, Swedbank and SEB is likely to follow in the footprints of Citigroup. Ie they both have a good cashflow, like the vastmajority of banks, but the creditlosses will/can wipe them out. This will change the whole perspective on these stocks, from undervalued to vastly overvalued. Facing government ownership (Swedbank), to Investor having to transfer their cash to SEB, plus an IPO. Risk in such a scenario is for stocks to drop to the 5 to 15 Sek range. Drastic, I know, but worth considering.
Eur/Sek would approach the 11.00 handle or more, Usd/Sek towards the 9.00 handle or more.
Stay short Sek, both against the Eur and the Usd.

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