26 November 2008

Full throttle against the raging river

Been away on a trip. Looking into a company with a very bright future.
Quite a few events taking place meanwhile;
* General and specific packages being launched in US, UK and "promised" in Europe.
* Tax cuts talked about in Europe, US, tax hikes for the wealthy in the UK.
* Global rate cuts continuing globally. As Ive mentioned before, we are now seeing Emerging markets joining in as well; Russia, Turkey, Poland, South Africa, and more will follow. Expect weaker currencies there, but first the short Try positions are being flushed out.
* Quantitative easing showing its effect in the long bond market with long bond yields falling heavily in the US.
* FED buying MBS and GSE debt, in essence directly supporting the consumers.
* However, Usd funding demand very heavy, especially from UK banks, pushing 3mth eur basis euribor from -120 to -165, 3mth cbl, gbp libor was -165 to -212. Cbl was at its highest to start with, so it has just kept pushing. Next week there will be an 84 day ECB auction.
So far these auctions havent attracted much demand due to their current rates being 40-50 bp above the market. This level is now attractive due to market developments, so expect heavy demand there. Cbl situation does not seem to get that relief. Anyway, where am I going with this? I am concerned that liquidity spreads are widening when state money continues to be injected on a scale never seen before. To sum it up; Extreme amounts of money, but wheres the velocity? Without money velocity, no "bang for the buck". More Tax cuts and infrastructure programs to get people into work, please.
All in all, the efforts made by centralbanks and governments globally is simply massive, extraordinarily, for a lack of a better word.
* I am now concerned by the velocity of money. It need to be sped up. This is where the fiscal measures come in. Instead of spending money on dinosaur businesses and corporations, please make sure people get money in their pockets by making labour cheaper via lower taxes for employers as well as lower income taxes and VAT.
* Governments should invest in infrastructure projects, there are plenty to choose from. Some are even urgently needed anyway. This will achieve higher efficiency, productivity and profitability, making each country more competitive. We are facing a worsening global macro outlook. Making the right decisions are key here. Unfortunately it all smells like protectionism in the end. As long as the bailout talks of various industries persist, anyway.
I suspect unemployment will have to rise towards 10-15% in western countries. Higher in Emerging ones. At least, infrastructure projects can sort some of that out, or at least cap it.
Net, net;
Hard efforts are being made, but not enough fiscal policy measures to make me bullish.
Im still bearish.
What comes after deflation? Inflation. Not really on the radar screen as of yet, but something to keep in the back of your mind. Now; Cash is king, then; Cash will be the worst place to be.

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