Emerging markets and the yield curves

Ok, so well be having a global recession soonish. As Ive mentioned before, Emergingmarkets are key in this. So what do I think will happen with the FX and the yield curves. Well, if we start with CEE markets, Turkey and South Africa. Domestic demand is falling rapidly in these countries, but yield curves are inverted, following classic Emerging market and IMF methodology. Industrialised countries are doing all they can to avoid a depression, this theme will also be coming to an Emerging country near you. The "only" thing preventing these countries to copy paste the very steep yield curve of the g20 countries is the absence of blanket guarantee to their banks. This will most likély be provided by the IMF. Once this is in place, there should be little in the way fo the these emerging countries flattening and eventually steepening the yield curve slope. Swap lines should ensure the respective countries borrowing in hard currency gets funded. Politicians have to choose whether they will risk imploding domestic demand and no exports or a weaker currency, stimulating demand but creating hard currency losses for households and corporates in the process. Putting a gun to their head, I believe they will choose the latter.