The RUB right now - a guiding light for further financial market developments.
The RUB is approaching the 36.00 level in USD/RUB, reaching 35.45 so far today. 36.00 is the ish Usd/Rub level the CBR will have to defend. 41.00 is the corresponding basket level.
With the remaining FX reserves down to 365 BN Usd as of 23 Jan, the CBR will need to manage it tightly in order to avoid sliding below the 200 BN Usd mark.
There will not be much logic in using the remaining reserves to feed speculators instead of focusing on domestic needs. It would be a loosing battle. As the oil price remains depressed and an increasing number of Russian citizens and Corporates realises what is about to happen, the pressure will increase further.
I expect the RUB to float before long and am long Usd/Rub.
On the back of this I expect severe repercusssions in the CEE countries(which are already very vulnerable), the Ukraine and the Baltics. A floating RUB will risk cracking the Baltic pegs.
I remain short banks with exposure to the Baltics.
I have added to my long Nok/Sek.
With Jean Claude "rearview mirror" Trichet in Davos, declaring the ECB not willing to cut rates below "a certain level" in order to keep ammunition dry and fend off future economic weakening, the ECB have declared themselves followers of the 1990;s "Japan strategy". Further on, the ECB has also asked the European Banks to use raised equity to lend. With banks wanting to shrink their balance sheet and very aware of not loosing their credit ratings, this is not something the banks are likely to adhere to. This is not good.
I have added to my short Eur/Usd, as the Usd is now the "antieuro".
Equity markets are up today. From what I understand, this is very much end of month "windowdressing related", thus we should see a heavy tone to equities at the start of next week.
With Japanese export collapsing and Japanese banks getting dragged into the financial crisis, I will expect Japanese repatriation flows towards fiscal year end to be particularly strong this year, dragging other assetmarkets with it and sinking the Euro in the process (as if it needed any further assistance).
FX intervention risk by the BOJ/MOF is increasing as the market is approaching 85.00 in Usd/Jpy, on its way to all time low of 80.00. Dont ask me where Eur/Jpy will be though, probably sub 100/105.
As always, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
30 January 2009
29 January 2009
Nassim Taleb in Davos; Wants to Nationalise Banks, run any risktaking entity as private - never to be bailed out
The former optionstrader, writer and Guru Nassim Taleb, wants US banks to be nationalised, treating them as utility companies. He wants any risktaking entities to be separated and run privately with a clear directive never to be bailed out. This to prevent any profits from being paid out as bonuses during goodtimes only to be bailed out during crises.
He also wants a ban on CDS trading in order to prevent sovereign speculation. When it comes to options and derivatives he wants a decomplexation of the product, leaving only vanilla options to be allowed in order to make the risk more comprehensive and transparent for boards and regulators, since they seem not to understand the product.
I agree, they dont. Many managers at lower levels dont seem to understand it either.
Suggestion; only allow institutions where management properly understands the product to be allowed to riskmanage it. Otherwise not.
Criteria; Only accept business area heads at board level with hands on trading experience for x amount of years with proper trading and management exposure to sizeable options/derivative portfolios in order to get the indepth know how.
Wouldnt leave many institutions allowed to manage options risk without shifting out management, prompting CHANGE.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
He also wants a ban on CDS trading in order to prevent sovereign speculation. When it comes to options and derivatives he wants a decomplexation of the product, leaving only vanilla options to be allowed in order to make the risk more comprehensive and transparent for boards and regulators, since they seem not to understand the product.
I agree, they dont. Many managers at lower levels dont seem to understand it either.
Suggestion; only allow institutions where management properly understands the product to be allowed to riskmanage it. Otherwise not.
Criteria; Only accept business area heads at board level with hands on trading experience for x amount of years with proper trading and management exposure to sizeable options/derivative portfolios in order to get the indepth know how.
Wouldnt leave many institutions allowed to manage options risk without shifting out management, prompting CHANGE.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Putin in Davos; Warns against excessive state role in the economy
Putin is talking to a different tune than what I have been used to hearing him at. Between the lines I get the impression there is a strained budget behind it. According to Putin, a greater number of Russian corporates will have to try to fend it for themselves during this crisis.
Stating the obvious, that "there is not resources to save everybody". When Putin says it one should probably not put western values into it. Its a harsh statement. It will affect the RUB negatively. Usd/Rub is now almost 35.00, seems the CBR resolve will be tested at 36.00 before long.
P.S. Alledgedly the South African bar in Davos is by far the most popular and preferred ahead of official dinners.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Stating the obvious, that "there is not resources to save everybody". When Putin says it one should probably not put western values into it. Its a harsh statement. It will affect the RUB negatively. Usd/Rub is now almost 35.00, seems the CBR resolve will be tested at 36.00 before long.
P.S. Alledgedly the South African bar in Davos is by far the most popular and preferred ahead of official dinners.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Oil higher - Weaker RUB - CEE - Baltics - Banks - Nok/Sek
Oil price inching higher as assets are getting a reprieve from the US "bad bank" solution and US stimulus packages getting approved.
The RUB seems to have already left its consolidation area as its weakened against the Usd by close to 6% over the last two days, despite the USD correcting lower as well. The biggest two day drop in a decade, reaching the lowest level since the RUB crisis of 1998.
The strength of the RUB from last week was mainly attributed to VAT payments by local corporates and was expected to last til the end of this month.
Now it seem the bulk of it has already been done and we are back on track for a continued weakening RUB again. The new corridor established by the CBR leaves the RUB weak limit at 41 vs the basket and roughly 36 vs the Usd. Russia is in dire straits and still slipping on that slippery slope.
With no reprieve despite an Oil price inching higher and VAT payments still in the works. It seems to me there is a set up for further weakening. I expect further work for the CBR at 36 vs the Usd, reducing the countrys FX reserves towards the crucial 200 BN Usd mark. The risk has increased that CBR will simply let the RUB float.
I am long Usd/Rub.
This development will put further pressure on the CEE countries, worsening their already precarious situation. PLN alledgedly still have a large number of corporates suffering from their Fx options positions gone horribly wrong, with a steelcompany already gone bust because of it. (See article from the 15 Dec "FX;PLN; Corporate hedging gone horribly wrong")
These (at these levels) deep ITM options still need to be unwound, putting pressure on the PLN in the process. PLN will likely remain highly volatile due to this near term, with a weakening bias. I am short PLN.
Ive ranted so much about the Baltics by now that Im getting tired of it myself. Anyway, with the above taking place in the RUB and the CEE, the Baltic position is simply unsustainable. Ill leave it at that.
All banks were not created equal, neither were their centralbanks nor their governments.
This is noncontroversial. Still, the US measures and its positive impact on US banks are also benefitting the European banks to a very similar extent. It is simply not applicable to certain European banks at this stage. Break up the global bank stock correlations.
I mentioned this yesterday, but its worth reiterating.
I am long US banks stocks, short European ones. (Clue; short the ones with huge lending links to the CEE and especially fixed currency regimes within that area where the corporates and households have borrowed in a foreign currency,,,,).
As mentioned earlier, the SEK is a very much undervalued currency on any fundamental valuation, BUT, with the nearterm Baltic/Ukrainian, PE and Bank havoc to come, I will await these events first. As Ive mentioned in my piece from the 12 Jan, ("Reasons to be long Nok/Sek"), Norway is in a different situation due to their fiscal measures and them being funded by the Norwegian Petroleum/Pension fund. It is still very much valid.
Nok/Sek has had its biggest monthly gain since the fall of 2001 so far and I am looking for it to continue. We should be heading north of 1,20 to test the 1.20-1.21 area before long.
I am looking to add to my long Nok/Sek on any dips towards the 1.18 area.
I have taken profit on my long Eur/Usd position and am now short on the back of ECB once again proving themselves to be extremely unwilling to cut any interest rates. This will lead to increased riskaversion again, hurting the Euro.
Summary;
The RUB depreciation will have a very negative impact on the CEE currencies, the Baltics, the European Equities in general and especially the Banks due to increased creditloss refocus.
Dragging down the Euro (with the ECB assisting) in the process. Nok/Sek will also benefit from this.
As always, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The RUB seems to have already left its consolidation area as its weakened against the Usd by close to 6% over the last two days, despite the USD correcting lower as well. The biggest two day drop in a decade, reaching the lowest level since the RUB crisis of 1998.
The strength of the RUB from last week was mainly attributed to VAT payments by local corporates and was expected to last til the end of this month.
Now it seem the bulk of it has already been done and we are back on track for a continued weakening RUB again. The new corridor established by the CBR leaves the RUB weak limit at 41 vs the basket and roughly 36 vs the Usd. Russia is in dire straits and still slipping on that slippery slope.
With no reprieve despite an Oil price inching higher and VAT payments still in the works. It seems to me there is a set up for further weakening. I expect further work for the CBR at 36 vs the Usd, reducing the countrys FX reserves towards the crucial 200 BN Usd mark. The risk has increased that CBR will simply let the RUB float.
I am long Usd/Rub.
This development will put further pressure on the CEE countries, worsening their already precarious situation. PLN alledgedly still have a large number of corporates suffering from their Fx options positions gone horribly wrong, with a steelcompany already gone bust because of it. (See article from the 15 Dec "FX;PLN; Corporate hedging gone horribly wrong")
These (at these levels) deep ITM options still need to be unwound, putting pressure on the PLN in the process. PLN will likely remain highly volatile due to this near term, with a weakening bias. I am short PLN.
Ive ranted so much about the Baltics by now that Im getting tired of it myself. Anyway, with the above taking place in the RUB and the CEE, the Baltic position is simply unsustainable. Ill leave it at that.
All banks were not created equal, neither were their centralbanks nor their governments.
This is noncontroversial. Still, the US measures and its positive impact on US banks are also benefitting the European banks to a very similar extent. It is simply not applicable to certain European banks at this stage. Break up the global bank stock correlations.
I mentioned this yesterday, but its worth reiterating.
I am long US banks stocks, short European ones. (Clue; short the ones with huge lending links to the CEE and especially fixed currency regimes within that area where the corporates and households have borrowed in a foreign currency,,,,).
As mentioned earlier, the SEK is a very much undervalued currency on any fundamental valuation, BUT, with the nearterm Baltic/Ukrainian, PE and Bank havoc to come, I will await these events first. As Ive mentioned in my piece from the 12 Jan, ("Reasons to be long Nok/Sek"), Norway is in a different situation due to their fiscal measures and them being funded by the Norwegian Petroleum/Pension fund. It is still very much valid.
Nok/Sek has had its biggest monthly gain since the fall of 2001 so far and I am looking for it to continue. We should be heading north of 1,20 to test the 1.20-1.21 area before long.
I am looking to add to my long Nok/Sek on any dips towards the 1.18 area.
I have taken profit on my long Eur/Usd position and am now short on the back of ECB once again proving themselves to be extremely unwilling to cut any interest rates. This will lead to increased riskaversion again, hurting the Euro.
Summary;
The RUB depreciation will have a very negative impact on the CEE currencies, the Baltics, the European Equities in general and especially the Banks due to increased creditloss refocus.
Dragging down the Euro (with the ECB assisting) in the process. Nok/Sek will also benefit from this.
As always, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
28 January 2009
Selectively short term bullish on assets
US initiatives supporting assets short term
The US decision to establish a "bad bank" was just what the doctor ordered. By lifting out 1 Trn Usd worth of "toxic assets" out of the banks balance sheets into the "bad bank", the US authorities have in effect "cleaned" their banks balancesheets. The US administration got the US senate and finance Committee to agree to 525 BN Usd out of the 900 Bn Usd fiscal package overnight
This will attract private capital towards the US banking sector since the major obstacle for investing there has been cleared. This is in line with what I wrote on the 23rd of Jan ("The Swedish Bank plan"). Banks balance sheets needs to be swiped clean in order for the lending to get going again.
It is also in line with an article the IMF put on their homepage on the 26 Jan. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2009/NEW012609A.htm
I am buying US banks Citigroup and Bank of America via options.
The assetmarkets will be supported near term. However, I believe stockmarket correlations on this move have been way too high globally as measures by authorities in the US are not reflected in Europe.
Germany still firmly resists the creation of a "bad Bank" for "toxic assets". This and the fact that profiscal and monetary measures are lagging the US dramatically both in terms of the number of proactive initiatives as well as in size. This makes a huge difference to me and, I would imagine, to the markets as well. So far no sign of it though.
I will be looking for reasons to go short banks in Europe as soon as the market realises the "good US story" does not apply to the gloomy European one.
Relatively speaking, creditlosses are still waiting to be realised in Europe.
In the US, the bank share holders have already paid their price - not in Europe. CEE countries will weigh very heavily around Europes credit neck, not to mention the massive internal European credit problems - still unresolved. European banks heavily exposed towards CEE countries, especially the ones with fixed currency regimes and heavy foreign currency exposure, will be the ones I will prefer to sell once this rally dwindles.
With an increased yield focus in FX short term I am still long Eur/Usd as US bond yield differentials have moved 60 plus BP in favour of the Euro. With the US "bad bank" initiative the need for Usd positive repatriation flows have temporarily abated. (This will weaken as a factor for buying Usd overtime anyway, focus will be on other variables.) I am still Usd bullish overall. This is just a short term tactical trade.
As always, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The US decision to establish a "bad bank" was just what the doctor ordered. By lifting out 1 Trn Usd worth of "toxic assets" out of the banks balance sheets into the "bad bank", the US authorities have in effect "cleaned" their banks balancesheets. The US administration got the US senate and finance Committee to agree to 525 BN Usd out of the 900 Bn Usd fiscal package overnight
This will attract private capital towards the US banking sector since the major obstacle for investing there has been cleared. This is in line with what I wrote on the 23rd of Jan ("The Swedish Bank plan"). Banks balance sheets needs to be swiped clean in order for the lending to get going again.
It is also in line with an article the IMF put on their homepage on the 26 Jan. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2009/NEW012609A.htm
I am buying US banks Citigroup and Bank of America via options.
The assetmarkets will be supported near term. However, I believe stockmarket correlations on this move have been way too high globally as measures by authorities in the US are not reflected in Europe.
Germany still firmly resists the creation of a "bad Bank" for "toxic assets". This and the fact that profiscal and monetary measures are lagging the US dramatically both in terms of the number of proactive initiatives as well as in size. This makes a huge difference to me and, I would imagine, to the markets as well. So far no sign of it though.
I will be looking for reasons to go short banks in Europe as soon as the market realises the "good US story" does not apply to the gloomy European one.
Relatively speaking, creditlosses are still waiting to be realised in Europe.
In the US, the bank share holders have already paid their price - not in Europe. CEE countries will weigh very heavily around Europes credit neck, not to mention the massive internal European credit problems - still unresolved. European banks heavily exposed towards CEE countries, especially the ones with fixed currency regimes and heavy foreign currency exposure, will be the ones I will prefer to sell once this rally dwindles.
With an increased yield focus in FX short term I am still long Eur/Usd as US bond yield differentials have moved 60 plus BP in favour of the Euro. With the US "bad bank" initiative the need for Usd positive repatriation flows have temporarily abated. (This will weaken as a factor for buying Usd overtime anyway, focus will be on other variables.) I am still Usd bullish overall. This is just a short term tactical trade.
As always, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
27 January 2009
China - is it derailing - will it devalue?
Intro
Competitive devaluations are here to stay unless there is a new, never seen before level of effort put into the coordination of the worlds governments on monetary and fiscal policies.
Tradewars and worse are a high probability outcome if they dont succeed.
A major factor in all of this is China. A centralised, non democratic country running a mixed economy. As with all defect structures and setups they all work very well during boom times and happy days. Once the tough times starts, however, weaknesses are quickly revealed.
We see it all around us. Our current corporate and political set up was not made for hard times like this. Imagine what it is like in a non democracy, where much of the crucial decisionmaking is centralised to a core entity, which is mainly politically and not commercially driven. Does sound like a very difficult set up for handling the current circumstances.
To the point
If Asia was the hope for an end to deflation and a revival for world growth, it looks quite hard at the moment. Chinese key trading partners are sliding. We all know about the Western ones. Lets look at the Asian ones this time around.
But first; Chinese GDP data almost resembles Madoff like numbers when it comes to outcome vs market expectations. It has gone from 12.6% growth in 2007 to 9.3% Q3 and most recently 6.8% in Q4. During this time almost all Asian trading partners economic data has surprised to the downside, despite democracies, despite open markets.
Last week South Korea reported Q4 GDP as -5.6%. The Reuters consensus was looking for -2.7%. However, that was not an annualised number. If one annualises it, the number is -20%. Sounds like a depression number to me. To top it off, Japanese exports to China declined at a record annual pace, to - 35% YOY. Last july they were expanding at 16% YOY.
Japan have now had five monthly trade deficits in a row since August last year. Any Japanese trade deficit prior to that was in December of 1981. It seems Japans trade surplus is unravelling at a quick pace.
The South Korean and Japanese numbers are part of a regional phenomenon and is obviously affecting China to a large extent.
What the real Chinese GDP number should be is anybodys guess, but it would seem likely that it is far lower than the official one. Probably with a minus in front of it.
With the Asian growth collapsing, Asian currencies barring the JPY, has also slipped on a slippery slope. The KRW(Korean Won), has dropped by roughly a third vs the CNY (Chinese Yuan). As a result, the trade weighted CNY has rocketed higher over the last few months, crushing exportgrowth in the process.
Add to that the rigid exchange rate regime, tied to a strengthening USD, and it would seem to me that the Chinese economy is under intense pressure. They basically have an infrastructure set up structured to serve the rest of the world with goods, which noone wants at the moment. They are supersized and the world only wants a diet portion.
Given the internal growth demands of the Chinese economy just to keep it socially stable, growth at any price could become the main priority on the agenda.
CNY devaluation risk
Mr Geithners (The recently appointed US Treasury secretary) nomination talk, demanding China to let go of currency manipulation might just happen, but not necessarily in the direction he was planning. China, just like any other nation, (and especially with a semi fixed currency regime in a deflationary environment) will probably look towards their currency for stimulation of domestic demand.
Lets just keep our fingers crossed that they dont, since a weaker CNY would unleash a deflation tsunami. Fortunately, there is a "terror balance" when it comes to the relationship with the USD due to the extremely large holdings of US government bonds that China possess. Towards the rest of the world, it is a different game though.
Summary;
The Chinese economy is most likely in dire straits. It should not be relied upon to bring the world out of the current economic state.
The Chinese tensions will increase towards the rest of the world as the trade weighted CNY increases in value, risking a let go of the current currencyregime. A let go could mean a weaker CNY on a trade weighted basis, exporting global deflation in the process. Not the extra dose the world would need right now.
The big questionmark would be whether China would also sell part of their US governments bonds as global and US trade would slow and Chinese surpluses were reduced?
Hopefully not, fingers crossed.
As always, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Competitive devaluations are here to stay unless there is a new, never seen before level of effort put into the coordination of the worlds governments on monetary and fiscal policies.
Tradewars and worse are a high probability outcome if they dont succeed.
A major factor in all of this is China. A centralised, non democratic country running a mixed economy. As with all defect structures and setups they all work very well during boom times and happy days. Once the tough times starts, however, weaknesses are quickly revealed.
We see it all around us. Our current corporate and political set up was not made for hard times like this. Imagine what it is like in a non democracy, where much of the crucial decisionmaking is centralised to a core entity, which is mainly politically and not commercially driven. Does sound like a very difficult set up for handling the current circumstances.
To the point
If Asia was the hope for an end to deflation and a revival for world growth, it looks quite hard at the moment. Chinese key trading partners are sliding. We all know about the Western ones. Lets look at the Asian ones this time around.
But first; Chinese GDP data almost resembles Madoff like numbers when it comes to outcome vs market expectations. It has gone from 12.6% growth in 2007 to 9.3% Q3 and most recently 6.8% in Q4. During this time almost all Asian trading partners economic data has surprised to the downside, despite democracies, despite open markets.
Last week South Korea reported Q4 GDP as -5.6%. The Reuters consensus was looking for -2.7%. However, that was not an annualised number. If one annualises it, the number is -20%. Sounds like a depression number to me. To top it off, Japanese exports to China declined at a record annual pace, to - 35% YOY. Last july they were expanding at 16% YOY.
Japan have now had five monthly trade deficits in a row since August last year. Any Japanese trade deficit prior to that was in December of 1981. It seems Japans trade surplus is unravelling at a quick pace.
The South Korean and Japanese numbers are part of a regional phenomenon and is obviously affecting China to a large extent.
What the real Chinese GDP number should be is anybodys guess, but it would seem likely that it is far lower than the official one. Probably with a minus in front of it.
With the Asian growth collapsing, Asian currencies barring the JPY, has also slipped on a slippery slope. The KRW(Korean Won), has dropped by roughly a third vs the CNY (Chinese Yuan). As a result, the trade weighted CNY has rocketed higher over the last few months, crushing exportgrowth in the process.
Add to that the rigid exchange rate regime, tied to a strengthening USD, and it would seem to me that the Chinese economy is under intense pressure. They basically have an infrastructure set up structured to serve the rest of the world with goods, which noone wants at the moment. They are supersized and the world only wants a diet portion.
Given the internal growth demands of the Chinese economy just to keep it socially stable, growth at any price could become the main priority on the agenda.
CNY devaluation risk
Mr Geithners (The recently appointed US Treasury secretary) nomination talk, demanding China to let go of currency manipulation might just happen, but not necessarily in the direction he was planning. China, just like any other nation, (and especially with a semi fixed currency regime in a deflationary environment) will probably look towards their currency for stimulation of domestic demand.
Lets just keep our fingers crossed that they dont, since a weaker CNY would unleash a deflation tsunami. Fortunately, there is a "terror balance" when it comes to the relationship with the USD due to the extremely large holdings of US government bonds that China possess. Towards the rest of the world, it is a different game though.
Summary;
The Chinese economy is most likely in dire straits. It should not be relied upon to bring the world out of the current economic state.
The Chinese tensions will increase towards the rest of the world as the trade weighted CNY increases in value, risking a let go of the current currencyregime. A let go could mean a weaker CNY on a trade weighted basis, exporting global deflation in the process. Not the extra dose the world would need right now.
The big questionmark would be whether China would also sell part of their US governments bonds as global and US trade would slow and Chinese surpluses were reduced?
Hopefully not, fingers crossed.
As always, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
26 January 2009
US Treasuries, bank stocks and currencies - getting squeezed, now what?
US 10 yr Treasury bonds have had their biggest weekly jump in yields since 9/11.
Bank stocks rallying massively after Barclays declared they would not be raising additional capital and would make a profit for now.
Currencies partly recouping lost territory.
In short, it was a squeeze day.
At least that is my take on it unless it continues (funny that). Seriously, it was an interesting day and putting my bull hat on, I can see a few glimmerings of hope.
- Higher US treasury yields frees up capital, to potentially be used ahhrumm - in the stock or corporate bond market.
- It was a long time ago since we had any positive banking news whatsoever in Europe.
- Yielders actually gained ground in the currency markets and the Usd weakened.
All bullish signs for the riskaverse, lowering implied volatilites and increasing the riskappetite.
Looking at the technicals it seems we are at fairly important levels in many assetclasses, should there be a continuation of todays moves. I will observe these levels to judge the extent and the timeframe of this squeeze.
Unfortunately I do not yet believe it is more than squaring.
Once the huge monetary supply in the US finds traction, there will be massive action,(see 17 Dec "FED and the 0ish rate policy,,,,"), but I dont think we´re there just yet.
Dont have to believe the story to join the move though.
From a macro point of view, it does not look very encouraging in general, especially not in Europe. US data being the exception today. To be monitored.
One specific macro case that will not get any reprieve is the one involving countries stuck with fixed currency regimes. Those assets are on a steady deterioration path. Investors owning stocks or credit depending on revenues from such countries should beware.
We are currently in a deflationary environment, where fixed currency regimes are, to put it mildly, a definite disadvantage for a country´s future prospects.
As always, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Bank stocks rallying massively after Barclays declared they would not be raising additional capital and would make a profit for now.
Currencies partly recouping lost territory.
In short, it was a squeeze day.
At least that is my take on it unless it continues (funny that). Seriously, it was an interesting day and putting my bull hat on, I can see a few glimmerings of hope.
- Higher US treasury yields frees up capital, to potentially be used ahhrumm - in the stock or corporate bond market.
- It was a long time ago since we had any positive banking news whatsoever in Europe.
- Yielders actually gained ground in the currency markets and the Usd weakened.
All bullish signs for the riskaverse, lowering implied volatilites and increasing the riskappetite.
Looking at the technicals it seems we are at fairly important levels in many assetclasses, should there be a continuation of todays moves. I will observe these levels to judge the extent and the timeframe of this squeeze.
Unfortunately I do not yet believe it is more than squaring.
Once the huge monetary supply in the US finds traction, there will be massive action,(see 17 Dec "FED and the 0ish rate policy,,,,"), but I dont think we´re there just yet.
Dont have to believe the story to join the move though.
From a macro point of view, it does not look very encouraging in general, especially not in Europe. US data being the exception today. To be monitored.
One specific macro case that will not get any reprieve is the one involving countries stuck with fixed currency regimes. Those assets are on a steady deterioration path. Investors owning stocks or credit depending on revenues from such countries should beware.
We are currently in a deflationary environment, where fixed currency regimes are, to put it mildly, a definite disadvantage for a country´s future prospects.
As always, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
23 January 2009
The Swedish bank plan
It seems the contours of a Swedish bankplan is taking shape.
Given concrete bank and political measures, this is my speculative view of what is developing.
Fact; Swedbank and SEB are creating separate "toxicasset" subsidiaries in the Baltics.
Fact; Minister Odell is traveling with Swedish banks to the middleeast to try and raise capital in February.
Fact; The above mentioned bank stocks have taken a hard fall at the beginning of this year, being down more than 30% so far.
My take on it;
The Swedish government is starting to realise that there will be a let go of the Latvian currency board sooner rather than later and that this will wreak havoc with the Swedish banks. Therefore, SEB and Swedbank has been asked to set up subsidiaries with the toxicassets in them as a preparation for this.
To recapitalise pre "toxic assets" are lifted out, the government will have to prop up with capitalinjections and most likely take a main shareholderstake, alternatively provide very favourable loans, but this might be very sensitive from a political aspect, given the current public opinion.
To make sure all viable routes are checked out, the aforementioned middleeastern trip is taking place. I seriously doubt any middleeastern investor would get into any of the Swedish banks PRE "toxicasset offloading".
However I would guess that the middleeastern proposal will be for investors to take a shareholder stake in SEB, Swedbank or Nordea AFTER "toxicassets" have been lifted out into a separate company and spun off to the government at a huge discount. This would leave the Swedish banks clean, but undercapitalised.
Any potential investor would thus invest in a healthy bank entity and the probability of getting private capital would have increased massively.
Two main issues here though;
-At what price does the government buy the "toxic assets",
- Government basic financing for the "clean" bank. Any new investor will likely want some government guarantees of basic government financing before they invest, since otherwise there would be little incentive to participate. This as the bank would otherwise technically be bankrupt pre private capital investments.
At least that is what I would expect the impact to be once the toxic assets are properly "marked to market", leaving huge gaping holes in the balancesheet. One can be sure that the booked market value of these assets are very much higher than the "real" value if one were to realise these "toxic assets" into cash.
If this does not work, I suspect the government will have little choice but to simply take over the banks while otherwise structure it as described above. Roughly following the 1992 Swedish bank structure for collapsed banks.
The situation is much worse this time around than 1992 since this is a global meltdown, assets are much harder to value, there are many more assets held abroad and the system is generally more leveraged than in 1992.
Add to this the Private Equity dilemma where Swedish banks have lend in excess of 300 Bn SEK to Private Equity companies over the last 3 years plus normal recession credit losses in a housing market that has been pumped to the max and you realise that this is way more serious than 1992.
According to the Boston Consulting Group, they estimate that 20%-40% of all PE companies globally will go bankrupt within the next few years. That is HUGE. With Swedish banks in some cases having lend 90% for PE investments and with PE companies selling to each other, increasing the gearing levels along the way, many of these companies are now left high and dry.
Bled of their cash (paid out as dividends to the PE companies), massive debt (PE;s wanted gearing, gearing ,gearing) and negative cash flow in todays deflationary environment - thank you very much for that one. One does not have to stick ones chin out to claim that there will be HUGE creditlosses for the banks.
There is also an important point that seem to be forgotten when comparing the current circumstances with 1992 and that is the recovery phase. In 1992 the SEK was let go of the ERM and allowed to float freely. That immediately send the SEK 40% lower within a short period of time, boosting exports in the process.
This time around there is a very long line of governments that wants to dump their currencies and a very short line for governments that wants a stronger currency.
And oh, the rest of the world is deleveraging and selling assets as well, further increasing the recovery costs for the "toxic asset corp", the Government and the Swedish economy.
Summary;
Shareholders of SEB and Swedbank (and perhaps Nordea) stocks should have more suffering to look forward to, unless completely wiped out. Once "toxic assets" are lifted out and the banks starts anew with a "clean" balance sheet, Banks will get access to private capital for recapitalisation purposes.
Note; I am short SEB and Swedbank via options
As always, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Given concrete bank and political measures, this is my speculative view of what is developing.
Fact; Swedbank and SEB are creating separate "toxicasset" subsidiaries in the Baltics.
Fact; Minister Odell is traveling with Swedish banks to the middleeast to try and raise capital in February.
Fact; The above mentioned bank stocks have taken a hard fall at the beginning of this year, being down more than 30% so far.
My take on it;
The Swedish government is starting to realise that there will be a let go of the Latvian currency board sooner rather than later and that this will wreak havoc with the Swedish banks. Therefore, SEB and Swedbank has been asked to set up subsidiaries with the toxicassets in them as a preparation for this.
To recapitalise pre "toxic assets" are lifted out, the government will have to prop up with capitalinjections and most likely take a main shareholderstake, alternatively provide very favourable loans, but this might be very sensitive from a political aspect, given the current public opinion.
To make sure all viable routes are checked out, the aforementioned middleeastern trip is taking place. I seriously doubt any middleeastern investor would get into any of the Swedish banks PRE "toxicasset offloading".
However I would guess that the middleeastern proposal will be for investors to take a shareholder stake in SEB, Swedbank or Nordea AFTER "toxicassets" have been lifted out into a separate company and spun off to the government at a huge discount. This would leave the Swedish banks clean, but undercapitalised.
Any potential investor would thus invest in a healthy bank entity and the probability of getting private capital would have increased massively.
Two main issues here though;
-At what price does the government buy the "toxic assets",
- Government basic financing for the "clean" bank. Any new investor will likely want some government guarantees of basic government financing before they invest, since otherwise there would be little incentive to participate. This as the bank would otherwise technically be bankrupt pre private capital investments.
At least that is what I would expect the impact to be once the toxic assets are properly "marked to market", leaving huge gaping holes in the balancesheet. One can be sure that the booked market value of these assets are very much higher than the "real" value if one were to realise these "toxic assets" into cash.
If this does not work, I suspect the government will have little choice but to simply take over the banks while otherwise structure it as described above. Roughly following the 1992 Swedish bank structure for collapsed banks.
The situation is much worse this time around than 1992 since this is a global meltdown, assets are much harder to value, there are many more assets held abroad and the system is generally more leveraged than in 1992.
Add to this the Private Equity dilemma where Swedish banks have lend in excess of 300 Bn SEK to Private Equity companies over the last 3 years plus normal recession credit losses in a housing market that has been pumped to the max and you realise that this is way more serious than 1992.
According to the Boston Consulting Group, they estimate that 20%-40% of all PE companies globally will go bankrupt within the next few years. That is HUGE. With Swedish banks in some cases having lend 90% for PE investments and with PE companies selling to each other, increasing the gearing levels along the way, many of these companies are now left high and dry.
Bled of their cash (paid out as dividends to the PE companies), massive debt (PE;s wanted gearing, gearing ,gearing) and negative cash flow in todays deflationary environment - thank you very much for that one. One does not have to stick ones chin out to claim that there will be HUGE creditlosses for the banks.
There is also an important point that seem to be forgotten when comparing the current circumstances with 1992 and that is the recovery phase. In 1992 the SEK was let go of the ERM and allowed to float freely. That immediately send the SEK 40% lower within a short period of time, boosting exports in the process.
This time around there is a very long line of governments that wants to dump their currencies and a very short line for governments that wants a stronger currency.
And oh, the rest of the world is deleveraging and selling assets as well, further increasing the recovery costs for the "toxic asset corp", the Government and the Swedish economy.
Summary;
Shareholders of SEB and Swedbank (and perhaps Nordea) stocks should have more suffering to look forward to, unless completely wiped out. Once "toxic assets" are lifted out and the banks starts anew with a "clean" balance sheet, Banks will get access to private capital for recapitalisation purposes.
Note; I am short SEB and Swedbank via options
As always, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
22 January 2009
The Eurozone and CEE dilemma - implications for the Euro, Jpy and European bank stocks
Bearish macro news coming in on a daily basis now.
The European Commission revising its Eurozone growth downwards , expecting it to contract by 1.9% in 2009(and the revision was most likely too conservative anyway with some bank analysts expecting 2.5% contraction), while the ECB is still mulling inflation risks. ECB projections has simply put been unrealistic.
Unfortunately, the ECB just dont seem get what the game in town is at the moment and this will come at a price. The price will be a continued falling Euro. (This might suit the ECB as well as it takes care of some of the lacking monetary easing).
The Jpy is to remain strong as currency hedging flows gets incentivised by globally steeper yield curves, kickstarting Japanese foreign asset hedging programs.
As Japans fiscal year end approaches, there is an increased probability that we will see accelerated repatriation flows back to Japan, as there has been a 40% drop in the net assets of publicly offered stock investment trusts in Japan. This will be a main driver of the repatriation wave.
Japanese currency hedging of foreign assets should be very much emphasised vs the Euro as Japanese lifers currency hedge their Eur exposures due to the Eurozone yield curve steepening towards the "magic" 200 BP mark.
The ECB mistakes will also increase the risk for a prolonged recession in Europe as layoffs and company closures becomes exaggerated compared to an environment of proactive monetary and fiscal measures. Add to that the Germans and their fiscally conservative approach, with the German Finance Ministry ruling out further assistance to the financial sector despite the economy on a steep downward slope, implying real growth differentials will work against the Euro as well. I can hear the French politicians screaming for a weaker currency already,,,,,,
The S&P;s downgrade of PIGS countries,(although expected), removing the AAA status will push official accounts to unwind government debt positions, driving the cost of borrowing higher in these countries. S&P also pointed out that the PIGS countries has to improve their competitiveness and productivity.
Well, thank you very much, Latvia is trying already,,,,, and it wont work there either. With the PIGS countries anchored up to the Euro, and the Euro still overvalued, it will be easier said than done - mission impossible til the Euro slumps anyway. Latvia will soon get out of their cryptonite deflationary pressure cooker, but it will be easier for them than for the PIGS.
The EMU spread divergence is continuing and in the short term it should mean that the Euro area as a basket of credit exposures should become less appealing, affecting investment flows negatively. The vision of the Euro as the "new reserve currency of the world" is quickly fading away.
The European commission also slashed growth forecasts for the CEE countries with three certain Baltic states and Hungary forecast to go into recession. Not long ago, ECB members and European politicians were talking about the CEE remaining an area of growth, hoping it would bailout the Eurozone.
Those hopes are now gone. The CEE area had been a perticularly fast growing destination for Eurozone exports . This is now withering quickly. According to the EC;s forecast, Poland´s fiscal deficit will not pass the Maastrich criteria and would negate entry to ERM2 entry in 2009. Expect the CEE (and other emerging countries) to all join the path of the western world yieldcurves as they come to the conclusion that it is a nobrainer to sacrifice their currency and inflation, funding concerns, before domestic demand.
Hey, theres always the IMF - or? Think they´d better hurry. IMF may want to portray themselves as having access to unlimited funds, but the countries willing to lend out the cash are getting fewer by the day as they have their own holes to put it in, it seems.
Competitive devaluations are around the corner, and with the CEE countries joining in as well, this will add another stone to the Eurozone´s burden.
The unfolding of the CEE countries will have a negative effect on the Eurozone via trade and the European banking sector, since many European banks are heavily exposed towards the CEE countries. Coincidently, in FT today, there was an article with European banks asking for crisis funds to the CEE countries and beyond.
The banks behind the petition were; Raiffeisen International, KBC, Unicredit, Intesa San Paolo, Erste Bank, Société Générale, German Bayern Landesbank, Swedbank, SEB and EFG Eurobank - now that´s a sell list of European Banks, ripe for government intervention/stakeholding/takeover.
As if to underscore how dire the situation for this group of banks is, the Flemish government decided to shore up KBC;s balance sheet with a 2Bn Euro cash injection after KBC presented a 2.5BN Euro full year loss for the 2008 fiscal year.
Once the bounce and consolidation in the European banking sector has run its course, it is highly likely the overall downward trend will resume itself. We are currently witnessing Banks getting scoped up by governments left, right and centre. One has to wonder who, if any, banks will be left standing on their own feet once this is over. Recapitalisation needs are rolling in for the overall corporate sector (excluding banks) and they will have a rough time, for sure. Dont expect any banks to reach out a hand anyway. They are looking for palms themselves.
Summary;
The Euro bearish story continues, the Jpy to remain strong.
I will use market corrections to reposition.
European Banks stocks are on a structural trend downwards due to underfunding and collapsing assets held as securities, expected creditlosses and non mark to market balance sheets, leaving gaping holes in them. In Europe, the situation has been made even worse than elsewhere, due to a lack of fiscal and monetary expansionary and proactive measures.
Creditlosses and ensuing recapitalisation needs are expected to be huge, forcing governments to step in at a quicker pace than what has been the case thus far. The CEE countries downward spiral will obviously not make things easier.
Right here and now technicals seem to warrant consolidation and correction, before we continue the current market trend down - an opportunity for me to reposition.
As always, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The European Commission revising its Eurozone growth downwards , expecting it to contract by 1.9% in 2009(and the revision was most likely too conservative anyway with some bank analysts expecting 2.5% contraction), while the ECB is still mulling inflation risks. ECB projections has simply put been unrealistic.
Unfortunately, the ECB just dont seem get what the game in town is at the moment and this will come at a price. The price will be a continued falling Euro. (This might suit the ECB as well as it takes care of some of the lacking monetary easing).
The Jpy is to remain strong as currency hedging flows gets incentivised by globally steeper yield curves, kickstarting Japanese foreign asset hedging programs.
As Japans fiscal year end approaches, there is an increased probability that we will see accelerated repatriation flows back to Japan, as there has been a 40% drop in the net assets of publicly offered stock investment trusts in Japan. This will be a main driver of the repatriation wave.
Japanese currency hedging of foreign assets should be very much emphasised vs the Euro as Japanese lifers currency hedge their Eur exposures due to the Eurozone yield curve steepening towards the "magic" 200 BP mark.
The ECB mistakes will also increase the risk for a prolonged recession in Europe as layoffs and company closures becomes exaggerated compared to an environment of proactive monetary and fiscal measures. Add to that the Germans and their fiscally conservative approach, with the German Finance Ministry ruling out further assistance to the financial sector despite the economy on a steep downward slope, implying real growth differentials will work against the Euro as well. I can hear the French politicians screaming for a weaker currency already,,,,,,
The S&P;s downgrade of PIGS countries,(although expected), removing the AAA status will push official accounts to unwind government debt positions, driving the cost of borrowing higher in these countries. S&P also pointed out that the PIGS countries has to improve their competitiveness and productivity.
Well, thank you very much, Latvia is trying already,,,,, and it wont work there either. With the PIGS countries anchored up to the Euro, and the Euro still overvalued, it will be easier said than done - mission impossible til the Euro slumps anyway. Latvia will soon get out of their cryptonite deflationary pressure cooker, but it will be easier for them than for the PIGS.
The EMU spread divergence is continuing and in the short term it should mean that the Euro area as a basket of credit exposures should become less appealing, affecting investment flows negatively. The vision of the Euro as the "new reserve currency of the world" is quickly fading away.
The European commission also slashed growth forecasts for the CEE countries with three certain Baltic states and Hungary forecast to go into recession. Not long ago, ECB members and European politicians were talking about the CEE remaining an area of growth, hoping it would bailout the Eurozone.
Those hopes are now gone. The CEE area had been a perticularly fast growing destination for Eurozone exports . This is now withering quickly. According to the EC;s forecast, Poland´s fiscal deficit will not pass the Maastrich criteria and would negate entry to ERM2 entry in 2009. Expect the CEE (and other emerging countries) to all join the path of the western world yieldcurves as they come to the conclusion that it is a nobrainer to sacrifice their currency and inflation, funding concerns, before domestic demand.
Hey, theres always the IMF - or? Think they´d better hurry. IMF may want to portray themselves as having access to unlimited funds, but the countries willing to lend out the cash are getting fewer by the day as they have their own holes to put it in, it seems.
Competitive devaluations are around the corner, and with the CEE countries joining in as well, this will add another stone to the Eurozone´s burden.
The unfolding of the CEE countries will have a negative effect on the Eurozone via trade and the European banking sector, since many European banks are heavily exposed towards the CEE countries. Coincidently, in FT today, there was an article with European banks asking for crisis funds to the CEE countries and beyond.
The banks behind the petition were; Raiffeisen International, KBC, Unicredit, Intesa San Paolo, Erste Bank, Société Générale, German Bayern Landesbank, Swedbank, SEB and EFG Eurobank - now that´s a sell list of European Banks, ripe for government intervention/stakeholding/takeover.
As if to underscore how dire the situation for this group of banks is, the Flemish government decided to shore up KBC;s balance sheet with a 2Bn Euro cash injection after KBC presented a 2.5BN Euro full year loss for the 2008 fiscal year.
Once the bounce and consolidation in the European banking sector has run its course, it is highly likely the overall downward trend will resume itself. We are currently witnessing Banks getting scoped up by governments left, right and centre. One has to wonder who, if any, banks will be left standing on their own feet once this is over. Recapitalisation needs are rolling in for the overall corporate sector (excluding banks) and they will have a rough time, for sure. Dont expect any banks to reach out a hand anyway. They are looking for palms themselves.
Summary;
The Euro bearish story continues, the Jpy to remain strong.
I will use market corrections to reposition.
European Banks stocks are on a structural trend downwards due to underfunding and collapsing assets held as securities, expected creditlosses and non mark to market balance sheets, leaving gaping holes in them. In Europe, the situation has been made even worse than elsewhere, due to a lack of fiscal and monetary expansionary and proactive measures.
Creditlosses and ensuing recapitalisation needs are expected to be huge, forcing governments to step in at a quicker pace than what has been the case thus far. The CEE countries downward spiral will obviously not make things easier.
Right here and now technicals seem to warrant consolidation and correction, before we continue the current market trend down - an opportunity for me to reposition.
As always, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
20 January 2009
Article set up on the blog - back to basics
Its been a great start to the trading year. Over the last two days Ive experimented by putting up the trades on the blog. The feedback Ive received is that this interferes with the articles published on this blog. If anything, they should be put on a separate blog.
I have decided to remove the trades from this blog page and keep this blog page set up as it was prior to this experiment, ie mainly macrocases/outlooks and analysis with a trading focus into various underlying assetclasses leading to trading conclusions.
Whether I will create a separate blog for trades remains to be seen. The jury is still out on that one.
Thank you
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
I have decided to remove the trades from this blog page and keep this blog page set up as it was prior to this experiment, ie mainly macrocases/outlooks and analysis with a trading focus into various underlying assetclasses leading to trading conclusions.
Whether I will create a separate blog for trades remains to be seen. The jury is still out on that one.
Thank you
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Bought more Gbp/Usd puts
After having locked in profits, getting new options on again.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Taking profit in Usd/Zar at 10.2064
Looking to buy dips.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
I am long Eur/Huf at 285.52, long Usd/Try at 1.6529, long Eur/Pln at 4.3324
RUB still under pressure, equities turning lower again. Eur/Huf about to break higher, Usd/Try at crucial level, Eur/Pln at the highs.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Taking profit on the options in Gbp/Usd
6 figs in 24h.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Taking profit in Eur/Huf at 286.97, looking to buy dips
Equity markets opening higher.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
I am long Eur/Huf at 285.90
After yesterdays high close, it looks like we might be breaking higher.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
19 January 2009
Taking profit in Eur/Pln at 4.3156
Looking to buy dips - again. Ditto in Eur/Huf, Usd/Try.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Taking profit in Eur/Huf at 282.67, buying Eur/Pln on the dip at 4.2847
Shifting risks towards end of day.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Taking profit in Eur/Pln at 4.3387
Eur/Pln has had a 10 big fig move today. Looking to buy dips.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Russia and the RUB - I am long Usd/Rub, Taking profit in Usd/Try at 1.6492
Analysts talking about a weaker RUB from here vs the basket, but consensus is that the basket will remain in place and that this weakening will continue to be controlled. I do not necessarily agree with the two last points.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Long Eur/Pln again, Long Usd/Zar
4.3232 and 10.0682. More info later.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
I am short Eur/Jpy via options
More info later.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Taking profit in Eur/Pln at 4.3203
Very swift and large move higher. Will be buying dips from here.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Short SEB and Swedbank via options.
Thinking todays UK bank bailout news was good for banks? Think again. Wrong path. US is choosing the right one by aiming to buy out toxic assets from the banks. Thereby making it possible for them to get access to private sector capital again.
UK version means still toxic banks AND a majority owner trying to run the banks in a Sovietunion spirit by "ordering" banks to lend. How silly is that? Very much so, in my book anyway. Leads to more capitaldistruction and misallocation, defeating the main objective and making things worse. Redo, please.
SEB and Swedbank link
Government ownership of banks is spreading like a bush fire in the western world. Anyone still dreaming that the Scandinavian banks will remain an exception for long? Not me anyway. Especially with their own subprime version across the Baltic sea. Russia desperately trying to keep their currency under control by basically letting it slip 1% against their basket every other day so far this year. NOT helping the Baltics.
CEE, Turkey and Southafrica heading lower as well. This is all increasing the pressure in the Baltic kryptonite deflation cooker further. Swedbank not providing any guidance for creditlosses going forward, hmmm,,, Probably not because earlier estimates were considered too big anyway. On the contrary, they were most likely embarrasingly low. Well, in the absence of guidance from Swedbank, I will make one for you.
My estimated credit losses for Swedbank of their capital lend in the Baltics (200 Bn SEK plus), once the lid blows, will be in the range of 15-25%,(sorry wide price) so 30-50 BN SEK over 1-2 years. Take it for what it is, a ballpark guesstimate. However, I do believe it is a better one than the previous Swedbank "guidance" anyway. SEB should fall into the same ballpark guesstimate btw.
How long before the lid blows? Dont expect it to hold for that much longer. I am talking months, perhaps less. Then any private equity recapitalisation plan will have a very low probability of succeeding. Government bailout will be the most likely solution.
Add the wonderful private equity mess ingredient and we have a bitter recapitalisation soup. If I was Chairman in any of these banks I would obviously give directions to recapitalise before the Baltics blew. Why have not SEB done this then? Perhaps they have already tried but found nothing there, and are now keeping their fingers crossed. Perhaps they are already in negotiations with their Government? What do I know? Im only guessing.
It does however seem quite apparent that this is a nonworkable situation and that time is running out for recapitalisation possibilities. The outcome is unfortunately heavily tilted towards shareholders having to suffer further from here. They could even be left with nothing. Once the stockmarket starts focusing on the probabilities and extent of coming creditlosses vs recapitalisation needs instead of "old world" valuation parameters, I do not rule out a Carnegie style stockprice movement (a swift and sudden very large gap lower) in these stocks as their very precarious survival situation becomes apparent. Time is NOT on their side as the situation becomes progressively more difficult.
As always, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
UK version means still toxic banks AND a majority owner trying to run the banks in a Sovietunion spirit by "ordering" banks to lend. How silly is that? Very much so, in my book anyway. Leads to more capitaldistruction and misallocation, defeating the main objective and making things worse. Redo, please.
SEB and Swedbank link
Government ownership of banks is spreading like a bush fire in the western world. Anyone still dreaming that the Scandinavian banks will remain an exception for long? Not me anyway. Especially with their own subprime version across the Baltic sea. Russia desperately trying to keep their currency under control by basically letting it slip 1% against their basket every other day so far this year. NOT helping the Baltics.
CEE, Turkey and Southafrica heading lower as well. This is all increasing the pressure in the Baltic kryptonite deflation cooker further. Swedbank not providing any guidance for creditlosses going forward, hmmm,,, Probably not because earlier estimates were considered too big anyway. On the contrary, they were most likely embarrasingly low. Well, in the absence of guidance from Swedbank, I will make one for you.
My estimated credit losses for Swedbank of their capital lend in the Baltics (200 Bn SEK plus), once the lid blows, will be in the range of 15-25%,(sorry wide price) so 30-50 BN SEK over 1-2 years. Take it for what it is, a ballpark guesstimate. However, I do believe it is a better one than the previous Swedbank "guidance" anyway. SEB should fall into the same ballpark guesstimate btw.
How long before the lid blows? Dont expect it to hold for that much longer. I am talking months, perhaps less. Then any private equity recapitalisation plan will have a very low probability of succeeding. Government bailout will be the most likely solution.
Add the wonderful private equity mess ingredient and we have a bitter recapitalisation soup. If I was Chairman in any of these banks I would obviously give directions to recapitalise before the Baltics blew. Why have not SEB done this then? Perhaps they have already tried but found nothing there, and are now keeping their fingers crossed. Perhaps they are already in negotiations with their Government? What do I know? Im only guessing.
It does however seem quite apparent that this is a nonworkable situation and that time is running out for recapitalisation possibilities. The outcome is unfortunately heavily tilted towards shareholders having to suffer further from here. They could even be left with nothing. Once the stockmarket starts focusing on the probabilities and extent of coming creditlosses vs recapitalisation needs instead of "old world" valuation parameters, I do not rule out a Carnegie style stockprice movement (a swift and sudden very large gap lower) in these stocks as their very precarious survival situation becomes apparent. Time is NOT on their side as the situation becomes progressively more difficult.
As always, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Long Eur/Pln via cash
Rate; 4.2457. More info later.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
I am short Gbp/Usd, short Eur/Usd via options. Long Eur/Huf via cash.
Eur/Huf rate; 279.725. More info later
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
16 January 2009
Im long Usd/Try
Emerging currencies sinking in a Friday afternoon selloff. However, ramifications this time around means more than just a temporary one. Writing a piece on this. Will be out sometime next week, til then, have a great w/e.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Long Nok/Sek - looking for 1.20
With Eur/Nok still comfortably below 9.31 and Eur/Sek comfortably above 10.70, I am long Nok/Sek after the impressive break of the 1.17 level. Need it to close above there as well.
Targeting 1.20 For more Nok/Sek info, please read the the piece from 12 Jan, "Reasons to be long Nok/Sek".
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Targeting 1.20 For more Nok/Sek info, please read the the piece from 12 Jan, "Reasons to be long Nok/Sek".
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Taking profit on long Eur/Usd,monitoring Nok/Sek
The 1.33 lvl held in Eur/Usd today. Nok/Sek looks like its breaking through 1.17 with Eur/Nok still holding below 9.31. Monitoring.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Eur squeeze could take spot to 1.3470 and 121.70 in Eur/Usd, Eur/Jpy
I am long Eur/Usd for the squeeze. This is purely technical and market positioning related.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Eur/Nok below the 9.31 level, but I take profit on my long Nok/Sek.
Eur/Nok has gone through the 9.31 level, which was an important one. However, I am not convinced that this is it on a closing basis. 1.17 in Nok/Sek is also a hard level to break.
The long Nok/Sek case still stands however. I will buy dips from here, alternatively a clear break higher of 1.17. Watch the close.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The long Nok/Sek case still stands however. I will buy dips from here, alternatively a clear break higher of 1.17. Watch the close.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
15 January 2009
ECB in denial - or just looking for the EUR to do the monetary easing?
ECB comments post the 50 BP cut declaring that this cut is discounting further Eurozone weakness and that the March ECB meeting is the next stop is an invitation to sell the Eur.
It does not seem like the ECB will do anything until then.
Still behind the curve, still modelling the interestrate policy on Germany, leaving the PIGS countries out in the cold.
Perhaps the ECB is accutely aware of what they are doing? Perhaps they calculate on the Euro collapsing on the back of it, easing monetary conditions in the process?
Or are they counting on the yield differential to net the effect out and stabilise the currency?
Well, if they are counting on the former, at least, I believe they will be proven right.
No big shakes in the FX market right now. With the market being short Eur, there might even be an attempt to shortsqueeze it as Euro interest rate yields are pushed higher in the front end.
Perhaps this will also provide a short reprieve for Jpy related flows due to the adjusted yield curve shape, but it should be a temporary one. The Market will most likely become increasingly concerned with the ECB;s ignorance of the Euro zone current economic condition.
The net effect over the next few weeks should be negative for the Eur.
This does NOT bode well for assetmarkets going forward.
I will be selling any short squeeze rallies on bank stocks and the Eur.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
It does not seem like the ECB will do anything until then.
Still behind the curve, still modelling the interestrate policy on Germany, leaving the PIGS countries out in the cold.
Perhaps the ECB is accutely aware of what they are doing? Perhaps they calculate on the Euro collapsing on the back of it, easing monetary conditions in the process?
Or are they counting on the yield differential to net the effect out and stabilise the currency?
Well, if they are counting on the former, at least, I believe they will be proven right.
No big shakes in the FX market right now. With the market being short Eur, there might even be an attempt to shortsqueeze it as Euro interest rate yields are pushed higher in the front end.
Perhaps this will also provide a short reprieve for Jpy related flows due to the adjusted yield curve shape, but it should be a temporary one. The Market will most likely become increasingly concerned with the ECB;s ignorance of the Euro zone current economic condition.
The net effect over the next few weeks should be negative for the Eur.
This does NOT bode well for assetmarkets going forward.
I will be selling any short squeeze rallies on bank stocks and the Eur.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The Euro´s precarious state
What does the PIGS economies have in common with the Latvian one?
Not much in general, but one specific burden they do share; being handcuffed to a currency much too strong in relationship to their own economys competitiveness.
Latvia we all know are in very dire straits, counting on 25% wagecuts to compensate for soon zero exports, imploding growth and skyrocketing unemployment while the currency remains ehhh, pegged, should work? - yeah, right, eat my shorts. Hence, that currency should be released from its "peg" sooner rather than later, which I believe it will, by the force of economics.
The PIGS(Portugal,Italy,Greece,Spain), just like Latvia, has massive issues with its imploding construction, housing and realestate sector and shortterm, its not getting better.
Currency wise, their economies are not tied to a currencyboard system like Latvia, but they are pegged to the Euro. Admittedly, the Euro is a freefloating currency, BUT, the monetary policy is currently more molded on the German economy than the PIGS ones.
With the Euro area in deep trouble, primarily weighed down by the PIGS countries, the ECB, skipper of the monetary policy, is clearly behind the curve.
So far, the implications for the PIGS has been that they are pegged to a currency too strong compared to the Euro zone overall economic competitiveness, and WAY too strong for the PIGS ditto.
You get my drift,,,,
PIGS countries are also risking ending up into the kryptonite deflation pressure cooker as long as the ECB do not err to the proactive easing stance PLUS coordinated fiscal expansionary policies takes hold in the Euro zone.
In any case, this should be another burden to weigh on the Euro currency in addition to the Jpy one (please read the separate piece on the Jpy factor weighing on the Euro as well,"I am short Eur/Jpy and Eur/Usd - here is why", from 12 Jan).
The European monetary and fiscal response contrasts quite clearly with the US one which has been operated in a more proactive way. Europe is lagging US both in economic cycle terms and in a policy response way. Hence, US will likely be the first to emerge from recession when that time comes, while Europe will still be grappling with theirs. Europe needs to shape up if the Euro is going to make it.
With Germany´s Finance minister Peer Steinbrueck expecting Germany´s deficit for 2010 to exceed 4% of GDP due to the new Eur 50 Bn Euro stimulus plan and the GDP for 2008 coming in at a soft 1.3%, the flagship of the Eurozone is not sailing smooth anymore.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Not much in general, but one specific burden they do share; being handcuffed to a currency much too strong in relationship to their own economys competitiveness.
Latvia we all know are in very dire straits, counting on 25% wagecuts to compensate for soon zero exports, imploding growth and skyrocketing unemployment while the currency remains ehhh, pegged, should work? - yeah, right, eat my shorts. Hence, that currency should be released from its "peg" sooner rather than later, which I believe it will, by the force of economics.
The PIGS(Portugal,Italy,Greece,Spain), just like Latvia, has massive issues with its imploding construction, housing and realestate sector and shortterm, its not getting better.
Currency wise, their economies are not tied to a currencyboard system like Latvia, but they are pegged to the Euro. Admittedly, the Euro is a freefloating currency, BUT, the monetary policy is currently more molded on the German economy than the PIGS ones.
With the Euro area in deep trouble, primarily weighed down by the PIGS countries, the ECB, skipper of the monetary policy, is clearly behind the curve.
So far, the implications for the PIGS has been that they are pegged to a currency too strong compared to the Euro zone overall economic competitiveness, and WAY too strong for the PIGS ditto.
You get my drift,,,,
PIGS countries are also risking ending up into the kryptonite deflation pressure cooker as long as the ECB do not err to the proactive easing stance PLUS coordinated fiscal expansionary policies takes hold in the Euro zone.
In any case, this should be another burden to weigh on the Euro currency in addition to the Jpy one (please read the separate piece on the Jpy factor weighing on the Euro as well,"I am short Eur/Jpy and Eur/Usd - here is why", from 12 Jan).
The European monetary and fiscal response contrasts quite clearly with the US one which has been operated in a more proactive way. Europe is lagging US both in economic cycle terms and in a policy response way. Hence, US will likely be the first to emerge from recession when that time comes, while Europe will still be grappling with theirs. Europe needs to shape up if the Euro is going to make it.
With Germany´s Finance minister Peer Steinbrueck expecting Germany´s deficit for 2010 to exceed 4% of GDP due to the new Eur 50 Bn Euro stimulus plan and the GDP for 2008 coming in at a soft 1.3%, the flagship of the Eurozone is not sailing smooth anymore.
Apart from the interestrate markets, where the sovereign bond spreads between the PIGS countries and German ones in some cases have widened to the highest level since the introduction of the Euro, it would seem the market is underestimating the extent of this Eurozone recession, which has been made worse by the minimal policy response.
Unfortunately, although the ECB is expected to cut rates by 50 BP at todays meeting, recent comments seems to indicate that they are looking to slow the pace of easing, despite the very steep fall in economic survey data. If this is the case, count on the Eurozone growth numbers for the coming quarters to be way worse than the most recent 1.6% m/m Industrial production for November.
Focusing on the outlook for todays ECB meeting, from a fundamental point of view, the Euro implications should be negative, no matter if the ECB cuts 50,25 or 75 BP.
From a fundamental point of view, here is why;
# At 50 BP, as long as they maintain the view that Eurozone rates cannot go down much further, the market will sell the Euro, since ECB will then have lost much important credibility at a critical stage. If ECB commits to further rate cuts, intial Eur move will be higher, but the yield curve will steepen, (see 12 Jan Jpy reference above) and Eur will eventually be sold.
# At 25 BP, any comment necessary? Worse than 50BP, total denial by the ECB, Euro sell off.
# At 75 BP, positive in itself for the Euro since it would indicate the ECB is getting a grip. Unfortunately for the Euro, it would mean the Eur 2/10 YR spread would move further towards the important 200 BP level. (see 12 Jan piece referred to above for further info). This would push Eur/Jpy lower, weighing on Eur/Usd as well.
However, having said that, I still believe the market positioning is such that the risk for a short squeeze is quite high. Therefore, I will be light in my directional positioning going into the meeting, relying mainly on options gamma, taking it from there.
Summary; The Euro macrofundamentals are not being supportive for the currency, quite the contrary. This should weigh heavily on the Eur during 1Q. Shortterm, I still see risk for a shortsqueeze in the Eur/Usd and Eur/Jpy due to market positioning, but rallies should be viewed as a selling opportunity. Expect continued high asset and FX volatility. I will be using options whenever feasible.
As usual, Good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
14 January 2009
Riots in Latvia overnight - calling for reelections
Sounds like a familiar scenario? Latvias government set themselves up for mission impossible when they agreed to the Swedish government´s (read Banks) terms for financial support. Perhaps they wouldnt have received it otherwise, what do I know?
Anyway, pressure is building in the kryptonite deflation pressure cooker called Latvia and risks have increased that the current government will be ousted via reelections.
How would a new government handle this new situation? I do not know who would be in government or what their official stance would be, but it wouldnt make sense to continue down the current unsuccesful path.
I would err towards them wanting to ease the pressure on the population, while having a window of opportunity to also prepare them for immense pain.
Net net, I believe the probability of a let go of the "peg" has increased further.
Being short Swedish/Scandinavian Banks (again) is the way to be. Prefferably via options. Huge creditlosses and recapitalisation needs are around the corner. The Swedish taxpayers will most likely bail it all out.
Equity holders trying to tough it out, focusing mainly/only on the positive cashflow and not so mark to market of asset values, plus "old" world valuations (see piece from 9 Jan), might be in for a very nasty and rude awakening. The Carnegie ghost might reappear for shareholders, whooooh,,,,,,
I will use any pre ECB correlated setback to add to NOK/SEK longs.
As always, Good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Anyway, pressure is building in the kryptonite deflation pressure cooker called Latvia and risks have increased that the current government will be ousted via reelections.
How would a new government handle this new situation? I do not know who would be in government or what their official stance would be, but it wouldnt make sense to continue down the current unsuccesful path.
I would err towards them wanting to ease the pressure on the population, while having a window of opportunity to also prepare them for immense pain.
Net net, I believe the probability of a let go of the "peg" has increased further.
Being short Swedish/Scandinavian Banks (again) is the way to be. Prefferably via options. Huge creditlosses and recapitalisation needs are around the corner. The Swedish taxpayers will most likely bail it all out.
Equity holders trying to tough it out, focusing mainly/only on the positive cashflow and not so mark to market of asset values, plus "old" world valuations (see piece from 9 Jan), might be in for a very nasty and rude awakening. The Carnegie ghost might reappear for shareholders, whooooh,,,,,,
I will use any pre ECB correlated setback to add to NOK/SEK longs.
As always, Good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Taking profit in Eur/Jpy, Eur/Usd for a pre ECB squeeze - trade that gamma!
With the market going one way so far this week, it would make sense for a pre ECB squeeze to clear the air and positions a bit. I am squaring my delta positions and looking to trade the gamma.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
13 January 2009
Eur/Huf - taking profit
I am taking profit on this swift move higher. Sold and squared at 280.18.
Will buy dips towards low 277.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Will buy dips towards low 277.
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.
Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
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