* Spanish bond auction went well, positive numbers overnight from Japan, Australia and China
This means increased global rebalancing potential as European countries are getting increased possibilities for exports, as asian fiscal policies are turning more domestic. With asia and parts of the emerging world requiring tighter monetary policies. With Europe in delevraging mood due to sinking domestic conditions, this export potential will help.
The Eur will still have to weaken substantially, even below parity, to test all time lows. However, now does not seem to the time for it. Also, the Eur/Usd move lower has to take place during semicontrolled conditions in order to avoid European banks and general asset markets falling.
With the Eur moneymarket curve flattening, Portugal and Spain successfully issuing 3 year bonds. Should the ECB extend its liquidity terms today, I expect OIS spreads to narrow further, dragging high yield and assetmarkets higher. BOE will remain soft.
Equity markets remain at a low value compared to expected profits for 2010. A short term Equity move higher would therefore be in line with a positive ECB outcome.
*Positions and positions changes; Change of plans
My change of heart from yesterday is based on markettiming issues as well as the comments above. Main scenario remains, however, I choose to participate in this shortterm development/correction.
- Took profit on my short Eur/Usd, position reversed.
- Took profit on my short Gbp/Usd
- Took profit on my short Aud/Usd, position reversed.
- Took S/L on my long Usd/Jpy
- Took profit on my long equity index put options
- Took profit on my long bank put options.
- Long GLL ETF (short Gold)
- Long LOIL ETF (Long Brent Oil)
As usual, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.Errors and Omissions may occur.Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
09 June 2010
BP vols skyrocketing to 130%, sell Gold
* A lot of talk whether BP will make it or not, strategic chapter 11 in the US, etc. Comparisons with Lehman seems misplaced to me. However, the political pressure is immense.
This will have repercussions on the assetmarkets. The risk is that all offshore drilling will be banned. Norway is alledgedly contemplating such a ban as well. This would drive Oil north, of course. On the other hand, Gold seems like a classic crowded trade, and the current violent moves might push margin accounts to consolidate, selling gold in the process.
* Positions
- Short Aud/Usd
- Short Eur/Usd
- Short Gbp/Usd
- Long Usd/Jpy
- Short European Equityindexes, European banks via options
- Long GLL ETF (short Gold)
- Long LOIL ETF (Long Oil)
As usual, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.Errors and Omissions may occur.Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
This will have repercussions on the assetmarkets. The risk is that all offshore drilling will be banned. Norway is alledgedly contemplating such a ban as well. This would drive Oil north, of course. On the other hand, Gold seems like a classic crowded trade, and the current violent moves might push margin accounts to consolidate, selling gold in the process.
* Positions
- Short Aud/Usd
- Short Eur/Usd
- Short Gbp/Usd
- Long Usd/Jpy
- Short European Equityindexes, European banks via options
- Long GLL ETF (short Gold)
- Long LOIL ETF (Long Oil)
As usual, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.Errors and Omissions may occur.Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
