Caught in a trap,,,,,,

"Caught in a trap, I cant look back, cause I love you too much baby,,,,," As the old Elvis song goes. The same can be said about the Scandinavian banks and the Baltics. The Swedish banks deeply involved are stuck there (and in Eastern Europe, Ukraine). The Baltics is the Scandinavian Banks own subprime, albeit on a much smaller scale. (Banks have lend a total of 400 BN Sek.) With Russia moving closer to the edge and the CBR realising that holding and controlling the RUB will most likely not be feasible going forward, the question is; how far and how fast will the RUB fall? Well, I cant answer that question. But I believe it will be further than what the CBR is planning to allow the RUB to weaken to. And I believe it will be in a shorter timescale than what they are planning as well. Without mentioning any numbers, the point here is that it will lead to an Eastern European crisis that was on its way anyway, but that will surely not be helped by this. Of course, surplus countries could still finance the IMF with money to be lend out to certain Emerging market countries, but judging from the G20 meeting, coordination does not seem to be the strong trait of that group. At least not yet. Even so, even if they do get this money, the basic problem is revolving around how these countries have structured their financing, leaving them very vulnerable in a global recession. It might be a temporary respite , but not a solution. By the way, this goes for this whole global deleveraging saga. Anybody ever heard about a forced deleveraging not involving pain? I havent. This will be no exception. The turn has come to the Emerging markets and they will drag the rest along with them. In the western world it seems anything will be done trying to temporarily soothe the pain, no matter what the consequences ahead are. More of that later.