09 November 2008

CEE to continue under pressure despite "lifelines"

Re the swap agreement between Poland and SNB; this does not involve PLN, rather Euro vs Chf, so transferring the risk to Eur instead. Expect the ECB to announce a swap agreement with Poland as well, soonish, or else,,, The upcoming G20 meeting is likely to generate hopes of more stimulus, but the level of global leverage is such that there is no guarantee whatsoever that this will be enough. Emerging market inflows is expected to slow from 1.9Trn Usd in 2007 to 650 BN Usd over the next few years. Asset correlations to start breaking up before long?

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