* Equity markets continue dropping
Eur bid! Looks like a classic shortsqueeze although intervention rumours are floating around. Personally, I dont believe the latter. It would probably be one of the most silly things ECB could do. It would give a green light for a Eur collapse. Rather I believe Eur shorts are covering as risklimits are cut and losses forces consolidation. I prefer to view Eur/Usd at 1.25 as a sell.
* A vicious circle
Euro area deflation pushing down European demand, as Chinas main export market, this pulls down Chinese exports. As China is the biggest exportdestination for Australia, this drags down Australias exports. AUD is/was a crowded long trade for all the wrong reasons. Hence, we are now watching both a washout as well as a fundamental shift in the approach to the AUD.
It will have further to fall.
Further, with European banks under strain, this will reduce liquidity, same thing in China due to tightening measures and falling asset classes. Liquidity driven trades will now suffer.
Carry traders get carried out.
*With leverage further increased, we are now in a situation with very high stakes. Any missstep by politicians or centralbankers will be magnified due to leverage. Remember, there is no riskmanager or riskmanagement in this equation. No stoplosses. May the force be with them.
It seems it would be time for a shortsqueeze, but,,,,,?
* New trades and positionchanges
- Took profit on my long GLD
- Took profit on my long VXX ETF
- Took profit on my long QID ETF
- Stopped out my short Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd spotpositions
- Sold Aud/Usd
- Bought Equity puts on equity indices and banks
As usual, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.Errors and Omissions may occur.Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
20 May 2010
18 May 2010
Talk of German shortban - there goes the upside correction, down again,
* When will they ever learn?
German authorities are alledgedly looking to apply a short ban on government debt, and major financials; banks and insurers. An act of desperation.
Thought European authorities learnt something during the latest fire emergency in 2008/2009.
Apparently not. Read my lips; banning shortselling does NOT stop assetmarkets from caving in.
Repeat and write down 10 times on the blackboard please.
This is actually becoming quite silly. If Germany, Europes hope, is coming up with these kind of silly ideas, who knows whats next. This does not bode well. All bets are off re my correction expectations. The Eur/Usd blip higher to the high 1.24;s most likely WAS the Eur/Usd correction. This could also drag the equity markets down with it.
Whats next, intervention?
I tell ya, they've got it coming,,,,, This is not looking good at all. Actually, Europe is following the kamikaze actionplan to the letter. This will all end in tears. Authorities have no plan B. This is it. This is a onewaytrip downnnnnnn. But hey, add another package, it will probably help,,,,,, right.
Markets are coming to the conclusion that current plan is not working and that the people in charge have no clue what they have done so far.
* Humans have a hard time managing huge leverage.
Now , the leverage levels might have been managable earlier on, but now we are quickly moving to very extreme levels. To think that politicians and centralbankers will be able to manage from here I do not believe is realistic, unfortunately.
*Equity analysts need to think twice.
Corporate earnings and data have come in strong, balance sheets look quite good. So far so good.
However, basic economic theory will tell you that this is merely the mirror image of the monetary stimulus that was created by governments and centralbanks.
If a government runs a deficit other agents will do well.
If you inject the corresponding deficit amount into the economy it will surely help.
However, as tight fiscal policies are introduced and stimulus is withdrawn, the economy will slow and corporate results will get hit.
* "Noone" expects the equity lows from 2009 to be challenged again.
However, if European authorities do not think twice and shift their policies to more common sense ones, I believe we will.
* New positions
- Ive bought puts on Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd, Eur/Jpy and Gbp/Jpy on the back of this.
- Ive bought VXX ETF;s
- Ive bought QID ETF;s
As usual, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.Errors and Omissions may occur.Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
German authorities are alledgedly looking to apply a short ban on government debt, and major financials; banks and insurers. An act of desperation.
Thought European authorities learnt something during the latest fire emergency in 2008/2009.
Apparently not. Read my lips; banning shortselling does NOT stop assetmarkets from caving in.
Repeat and write down 10 times on the blackboard please.
This is actually becoming quite silly. If Germany, Europes hope, is coming up with these kind of silly ideas, who knows whats next. This does not bode well. All bets are off re my correction expectations. The Eur/Usd blip higher to the high 1.24;s most likely WAS the Eur/Usd correction. This could also drag the equity markets down with it.
Whats next, intervention?
I tell ya, they've got it coming,,,,, This is not looking good at all. Actually, Europe is following the kamikaze actionplan to the letter. This will all end in tears. Authorities have no plan B. This is it. This is a onewaytrip downnnnnnn. But hey, add another package, it will probably help,,,,,, right.
Markets are coming to the conclusion that current plan is not working and that the people in charge have no clue what they have done so far.
* Humans have a hard time managing huge leverage.
Now , the leverage levels might have been managable earlier on, but now we are quickly moving to very extreme levels. To think that politicians and centralbankers will be able to manage from here I do not believe is realistic, unfortunately.
*Equity analysts need to think twice.
Corporate earnings and data have come in strong, balance sheets look quite good. So far so good.
However, basic economic theory will tell you that this is merely the mirror image of the monetary stimulus that was created by governments and centralbanks.
If a government runs a deficit other agents will do well.
If you inject the corresponding deficit amount into the economy it will surely help.
However, as tight fiscal policies are introduced and stimulus is withdrawn, the economy will slow and corporate results will get hit.
* "Noone" expects the equity lows from 2009 to be challenged again.
However, if European authorities do not think twice and shift their policies to more common sense ones, I believe we will.
* New positions
- Ive bought puts on Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd, Eur/Jpy and Gbp/Jpy on the back of this.
- Ive bought VXX ETF;s
- Ive bought QID ETF;s
As usual, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.Errors and Omissions may occur.Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
17 May 2010
Markets trading on the breakup of the Euro -fine, but its NOT happening now
* Immediate concerns for a complete Euro collapse will be replaced by a more nuanced view, splitting up the current very high Eur/Usd vs Equity correlation.
* Short Eur/Usd is an overcrowded trade, time for a squeeze towards 1.25/1.26. Something to sell into.
Equities are also due for a correction higher to the tone of 5%, at least. Also something to sell into. However, from there
* New positions and positionchanges
- I have sold shortdated equity index puts at very elevated vol levels.
- I have bought June index calls at quite decent vol levels. Looking for a correction/squeeze higher.
- I have bought Eur Calls on Eur/Usd, Eur/Jpy.
- I have taken profit on my short Eur/Usd, Eur/Jpy positions.
- I have taken profit on my long SOIL ETF
As usual, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.Errors and Omissions may occur.Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
* Short Eur/Usd is an overcrowded trade, time for a squeeze towards 1.25/1.26. Something to sell into.
Equities are also due for a correction higher to the tone of 5%, at least. Also something to sell into. However, from there
* New positions and positionchanges
- I have sold shortdated equity index puts at very elevated vol levels.
- I have bought June index calls at quite decent vol levels. Looking for a correction/squeeze higher.
- I have bought Eur Calls on Eur/Usd, Eur/Jpy.
- I have taken profit on my short Eur/Usd, Eur/Jpy positions.
- I have taken profit on my long SOIL ETF
As usual, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.Errors and Omissions may occur.Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
11 May 2010
The Euro; A whiff of ERM 1992,,, ECB not independent anymore
* Euro already suffering from rescueefforts post shortcovering - Euro set to weaken further.
1.23 first stop on the road to parity. Politicians are low on communicationskills, understanding, or both. "They" believe they are supporting the Euro with the latest humungous package. In reality, theyve just undermined it - exposing it to a collapse.
Why?
Lets see;
- Lost independence by the ECB, now also an administrator for the EU commission
- The ECB is buying junk bonds - diluting the creditquality of their portfolio and thus, the Euro.
- No Euro country apart from Finland is currently sticking to the Maastricht criteria.
- ECB and politicians is trying to bailout their own economies and bond markets in order to "save" the Euro. In essence conducting intervention. Intervention has historically never succeeded when Macrofundamentals have been pointing the wrong way, and yes - they are.
- Increase of the supply of Eur as the ECB buys its "own" bonds as those flows will later be nonsterilised.
- Madoff, ECB,,,,, This seems almost like a Ponzi scheme. Only the first appliers will get funds from the "common" fund. Then the coffers will be empty.
- Lack of trust for the Eur from centralbanks globally as governing rules set to ensure stability and value are changed without notice.
- For the last 10 years, centralbanks across the globe have been diversifying their FX reserves into Eur. I doubt those programmes will continue as before. Eur to suffer.
* It seems likely there will be a constitutional court hearing in Germany re the legality of Germany bailing out other Euro countries. This will likely be announced by the end of this week. This have the potential to shake the markets substantially in the case of non approval (not likely) from the German constitutional court. Even the hearing itself could make markets uncomfortable.
* Heads up; Since Greece and the rest of the PIIGS is nothing else than the Baltics and Latvia magnified by 20 and more, Im looking for the Baltic story to come back on the agenda. Banks to suffer in that case.
- LIBOR, has moved from 80 to 110 over the last months. Any moves higher should be monitored.
* What happens when Trillions of Euro sovereign debt is added to already indebted countries simoultaneously with extremely tight fiscal policy at the same time as Asia is struggling with inflation ,tightening monetary and fiscal policies, stimulating domestic demand instead of exports, reducing currencyreserves in the process?
Well, the long answer; Asian currencies will strengthen, G7 currencies will weaken. ; Asian countries will generate growth, exporting inflation, G7 countries will experience deflation(Eurozone). US struggling. Whats the short answer?; Stagflation. No growth with inflation.
* Whats the scope from here?
Towards the end of this week, I expect consolidation with an upward bias in equities, commodities. The euro to remain heavy. By the end of the week, more bearishness in equities, commodities(except gold) due to the expected German Constitutional Court announcement of hearing re Germany legality as paying part of the bailout package (38%).
- Eur to continue suffering, you just aint seen nothi´n yet.
-I am short Eur/Usd, Eur/Jpy. For a test of 1.25 and 116.
- Oil to continue suffering, I am long SOIL ETF.
- I am long GLD options (ETF). I will look to go long "new" gold though; Silver, Platinum. Gold is "old" Gold, owned by the centralbanks,,, - not that good.
As usual, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.Errors and Omissions may occur.Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
1.23 first stop on the road to parity. Politicians are low on communicationskills, understanding, or both. "They" believe they are supporting the Euro with the latest humungous package. In reality, theyve just undermined it - exposing it to a collapse.
Why?
Lets see;
- Lost independence by the ECB, now also an administrator for the EU commission
- The ECB is buying junk bonds - diluting the creditquality of their portfolio and thus, the Euro.
- No Euro country apart from Finland is currently sticking to the Maastricht criteria.
- ECB and politicians is trying to bailout their own economies and bond markets in order to "save" the Euro. In essence conducting intervention. Intervention has historically never succeeded when Macrofundamentals have been pointing the wrong way, and yes - they are.
- Increase of the supply of Eur as the ECB buys its "own" bonds as those flows will later be nonsterilised.
- Madoff, ECB,,,,, This seems almost like a Ponzi scheme. Only the first appliers will get funds from the "common" fund. Then the coffers will be empty.
- Lack of trust for the Eur from centralbanks globally as governing rules set to ensure stability and value are changed without notice.
- For the last 10 years, centralbanks across the globe have been diversifying their FX reserves into Eur. I doubt those programmes will continue as before. Eur to suffer.
* It seems likely there will be a constitutional court hearing in Germany re the legality of Germany bailing out other Euro countries. This will likely be announced by the end of this week. This have the potential to shake the markets substantially in the case of non approval (not likely) from the German constitutional court. Even the hearing itself could make markets uncomfortable.
* Heads up; Since Greece and the rest of the PIIGS is nothing else than the Baltics and Latvia magnified by 20 and more, Im looking for the Baltic story to come back on the agenda. Banks to suffer in that case.
- LIBOR, has moved from 80 to 110 over the last months. Any moves higher should be monitored.
* What happens when Trillions of Euro sovereign debt is added to already indebted countries simoultaneously with extremely tight fiscal policy at the same time as Asia is struggling with inflation ,tightening monetary and fiscal policies, stimulating domestic demand instead of exports, reducing currencyreserves in the process?
Well, the long answer; Asian currencies will strengthen, G7 currencies will weaken. ; Asian countries will generate growth, exporting inflation, G7 countries will experience deflation(Eurozone). US struggling. Whats the short answer?; Stagflation. No growth with inflation.
* Whats the scope from here?
Towards the end of this week, I expect consolidation with an upward bias in equities, commodities. The euro to remain heavy. By the end of the week, more bearishness in equities, commodities(except gold) due to the expected German Constitutional Court announcement of hearing re Germany legality as paying part of the bailout package (38%).
- Eur to continue suffering, you just aint seen nothi´n yet.
-I am short Eur/Usd, Eur/Jpy. For a test of 1.25 and 116.
- Oil to continue suffering, I am long SOIL ETF.
- I am long GLD options (ETF). I will look to go long "new" gold though; Silver, Platinum. Gold is "old" Gold, owned by the centralbanks,,, - not that good.
As usual, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.Errors and Omissions may occur.Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
09 May 2010
The ECB balance sheet is set to swell. China, Asia to reduce global liquidity
* The G7 finance ministers set to expand emergencyfund by 60 Bln Euro.
Perhaps this will consolidate markets somewhat nearterm, but I have a feeling more drastic measures will be needed to stop marketconcerns re the rest of the PIIGS countries.
- Perhaps a "massive" (pick a huge number) swap line from the FED to secure liquidity via the ECB to the PIIGS countries.
- Direct bond buying by the ECB.
Neither will sound good to the ECB, but the second will sound worst.
In either case, I feel fairly confident the ECB balance sheet will swell substantailly before long.
Diluting its portfolio with junk bond paper.
Both factors will sink the Eur substantially.
At the same time, Asian centralbanks are reducing the size of their currencyreserves as they are switching from exportoriented policies to domestically demand led ones. Tightening liquidity in the process ( China leading the way here, and yes, are they overleveraged or what? Same old, same old.)
I expect this liquidity factor to push up riskpremiums on assets globally regardless of what happens in Europe. Lets just hope the G7 finance ministers can get this situation under control to start with. I somehow doubt it. Although I can definitely see short term consolidation measures having shortterm effects.
* So far, the 2008 crisis has not really been RISKmanaged at all, just managed.
Liquidity has been poured over the leverage problems in the private sector and debt has then been transferred to the public one. Hoping it would be forgotten there. In essence, the stakes have been RAISED substantially, instead of lowered. The financialbubble in 2008 may have burst, but it has NOT been deleveraged,. Just transformed and increased, keeping fingers crossed for positive growth (the leverage would then generate superior growth). With negative growth,,,,, well lets not go there.
So far things have been looking quite good; rallying assetclasses, and market values slowly but surely approaching book values on various balance sheets, sinking implied volatilities int pre crisis territory. This, would in turn unclog the liquidity plug. Getting credit flowing and then - yes - growth going. Well, no more. Now it seems we might have a problem getting there,,,,, I expect money velocity to slow down further.
The Banks thought they were on safe ground, but they might soon get wet feet again,,,,
Just as some of them shouted out loud they didnt need any government support any longer,,,,, Oh well,,
* CEE to suffer hard if G7 liquidity measures fail to work
Usd liquidity and CHF liquidity dried up last week and this situation will just get worse if the G7 "liquidity rescue operation" fails to work.
*Whats the scope from here then?
- Well, I took profit on most of my equity puts on Friday, buying calls, anticipating urgent liquidity measures taken over the weekend.
- I have taken profit on most of my short Eur positions. Bought Eur calls.
- I have taken profit on my long
SOIL ETF.
Ive kept some limited exposure for continued weakness, just in case markets reject the measures taken alltogether and we'd spin into some kind of "black monday" scenario.
As usual, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.Errors and Omissions may occur.Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
Perhaps this will consolidate markets somewhat nearterm, but I have a feeling more drastic measures will be needed to stop marketconcerns re the rest of the PIIGS countries.
- Perhaps a "massive" (pick a huge number) swap line from the FED to secure liquidity via the ECB to the PIIGS countries.
- Direct bond buying by the ECB.
Neither will sound good to the ECB, but the second will sound worst.
In either case, I feel fairly confident the ECB balance sheet will swell substantailly before long.
Diluting its portfolio with junk bond paper.
Both factors will sink the Eur substantially.
At the same time, Asian centralbanks are reducing the size of their currencyreserves as they are switching from exportoriented policies to domestically demand led ones. Tightening liquidity in the process ( China leading the way here, and yes, are they overleveraged or what? Same old, same old.)
I expect this liquidity factor to push up riskpremiums on assets globally regardless of what happens in Europe. Lets just hope the G7 finance ministers can get this situation under control to start with. I somehow doubt it. Although I can definitely see short term consolidation measures having shortterm effects.
* So far, the 2008 crisis has not really been RISKmanaged at all, just managed.
Liquidity has been poured over the leverage problems in the private sector and debt has then been transferred to the public one. Hoping it would be forgotten there. In essence, the stakes have been RAISED substantially, instead of lowered. The financialbubble in 2008 may have burst, but it has NOT been deleveraged,. Just transformed and increased, keeping fingers crossed for positive growth (the leverage would then generate superior growth). With negative growth,,,,, well lets not go there.
So far things have been looking quite good; rallying assetclasses, and market values slowly but surely approaching book values on various balance sheets, sinking implied volatilities int pre crisis territory. This, would in turn unclog the liquidity plug. Getting credit flowing and then - yes - growth going. Well, no more. Now it seems we might have a problem getting there,,,,, I expect money velocity to slow down further.
The Banks thought they were on safe ground, but they might soon get wet feet again,,,,
Just as some of them shouted out loud they didnt need any government support any longer,,,,, Oh well,,
* CEE to suffer hard if G7 liquidity measures fail to work
Usd liquidity and CHF liquidity dried up last week and this situation will just get worse if the G7 "liquidity rescue operation" fails to work.
*Whats the scope from here then?
- Well, I took profit on most of my equity puts on Friday, buying calls, anticipating urgent liquidity measures taken over the weekend.
- I have taken profit on most of my short Eur positions. Bought Eur calls.
- I have taken profit on my long
SOIL ETF.
Ive kept some limited exposure for continued weakness, just in case markets reject the measures taken alltogether and we'd spin into some kind of "black monday" scenario.
As usual, good luck
The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.Trading on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.Errors and Omissions may occur.Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice."www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com" will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.© 2008 "www.todaysmacrotrading.blogspot.com:The traders blog" All Rights Reserved.
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