Time to dip those bearish toes (again)?

Next week should bring some clarity as to what effect, if any, the latest interestrate cuts will have on the CEE countries. Swaplines from SNB to Poland was extended last week, but already cries for more help are being heard from the Emerging world. The risk for a setback is clear to me. IMF is having trouble refinancing their depleted stocks. If the middleeast does not provide this,,,, Anyway The Baltics are sinking and my focus now is not if, but squarely on when they devalue.
This is a tricky situation since it is purely political, but another downturn in Emerging markets would make me bet on a 3mth-6mth schedule rather than a 6mth-12mth schedule. Latvia published their latest GDP figure last Friday (-4.2%). The countrys GDP has now dropped roughly 15% during the last 12 months. This downward spiral will continue til Latvia devalue their currency, LVL. The ECB shut the door towards Euro membership last year, and it will stay shut til they devalue and start from scratch. The solution will be very painful, but the longer devaluation is delayed, the higher the total cost for the country.
Which brings on the issue of the Swedish banks and the SEK. Both will follow the Baltics down. Stay posted.