25 May 2009

Usd squeeze and garbage still flying

* The downgrade of Britains creditrating immediately got the market worried re the US
We could see Eur/Usd reach the 1.45/1.47 area on a swift move, although I am looking for a pullback first. I am not looking for any move above 1.50. The market has become preoccupied with the European dilemma to the extent that positioning was simply
too onesided. A clearout is taking place and that is just what´s needed.

*Garbage is still flying -for now
Couldn´t help but notice that the Scandinavian Airline, SAS, has received bad press and heavy shareprice downgrades from practically every analyst covering it. Still, the stock remains bid. Smells like a rally brewing in that one. I have reentered this one. Light feet.

* Will June be the last assetmarket party month this summer?
I am starting to look around for opportunities to position for increased bearishness post it. Caution here is still warranted for the massive liquidity flows getting pumped into the market.

*Inflation, US collapse, Gold and Oil are the current trend subjects.
Inflation I think is too early - still. US collapse ditto. Still more concerned about the European situation should US and China not drag Europe out of the mud. There simply is no European plan. One big risk, come fall, would be that Europe starts sinking due to the US and China running out of steam. CEE and the Baltics weighing heavily as well.

Gold looks like it will retest 970 USD again, (almost there already at 955). Will it break 1000 USD? Neutral on Oil.

* New positions and position changes
- Long SAS, the airline stock
- Bought Eur/Usd puts for a correction lower


As usual, good luck




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