Garbage getting adjusted

* Bears in da house

I dont expect more than 10-15% down for equity markets (already down 5% ish over the last two days). Not if the stressedout institutional investors get to have their say. Many probably missed the rally and it makes more personal sense for them to go long than not. (Most are marked against benchmarks - so its all relative, not absolute.) I expect this to dampen the bearish momentum. Likewise, this move lower seems quite anticipated.

Anyway, in a few months at the latest, we should see the megabear trend reassert itself.
A Baltic devaluation would of course alter this scenario. The Baltic fixed exchange rate regimes are becoming ludicrous. Especially as the GDP;s are falling like leaves. Latvias budget deficit in relationship to the Latvian GDP is now expected by external analysts to reach 15% - 18%. The level with IMF was 5%,,,,, Fogettabt it!
Disclosure; I am long Eur/Lvl forwards.

* Im bearish assets short term
Looking for at least a few days of bearishness. In certain assets, a bit more. Commodity assets are looking weak as well near term.


* New positions and position changes
- The long Ultrashort Us Financials ETF I initiated and described yesterday was described with an incorrect name. It is called SKF.
- Added to my long SKF ETF.
- Bought Eur/Pln
- Took profit on my long Eur/Sek
- Took profit on my long Eur/Huf
- Took profit on my long Eur/Nok
- Took profit on half my long Usd/Zar, looking to add again on dips
- Bought puts on Swedbank, the Swedish Bank with huge exposure to the Baltics


As usual, good luck





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