09 August 2011

Too high expectations

* Wham Bam thankyou ma´m

Equity markets dropping sharply globally after lower future growth signals triggers drastic revaluation of equities.

The hopeless situation in Europe as well as the dissapointment that US consumers will not be acting as the buyer of last resort for goods and services for the foreseeable future.

Lets try to look at the " bright" side;
- US corporates are still doing well and are very well capitalised.
- Eurobonds could still be launched to fill the holes in the Eur pockets.
As usual, however, there is no free lunch. While it might solve market turmoil short term. Lower growth and purchasing power for Eur countries and citizens will be the consequence. It will happen anyway. Question is just - how low will they go?

* China - the elephant in the room
I would also like to mention China, which today launched July´s inflation number; 6.5% on an anuualized basis. This should really trigger further tightening measures from China, but during the current "equities falling of a cliff"
circumstances, they will probably not.

In either case, what markets - and the rest of the world, should fear now is China going bust. China has been experiencing a classic boom - and bust scenario and I believe they are about to enter the bust phase. This scares me and should scare you too - lets hope Im wrong. If I am not, you´d better prepare your house for the fiercest economic environment you might experience during your lifetime.

*Correction higher in equities starting today?
Meanwhile, the equitymarkets are bound for a rebound/ shortsqueeze.
Today could very well be the start for a decent correction higher. I am going long.

As usual, good luck







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