09 June 2010

BP vols skyrocketing to 130%, sell Gold

* A lot of talk whether BP will make it or not, strategic chapter 11 in the US, etc. Comparisons with Lehman seems misplaced to me. However, the political pressure is immense.

This will have repercussions on the assetmarkets. The risk is that all offshore drilling will be banned. Norway is alledgedly contemplating such a ban as well. This would drive Oil north, of course. On the other hand, Gold seems like a classic crowded trade, and the current violent moves might push margin accounts to consolidate, selling gold in the process.

* Positions
- Short Aud/Usd
- Short Eur/Usd
- Short Gbp/Usd
- Long Usd/Jpy
- Short European Equityindexes, European banks via options
- Long GLL ETF (short Gold)
- Long LOIL ETF (Long Oil)


As usual, good luck




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