Happy new year and decade

* A new calendar year, a new decade
If leverage up was the theme for the last decade, it certainly still hangs around as a theme going into the new one. With centralbanks keeping rates artificially low it is bound to continue.
Question is for how long.

Sovereign risk is definitely high up on the agenda and will likely play an important part in the macro world from here. As the creditplug remains, this is still a big risk ..factor to be reconned with.

The vanilla household realestate market are is not really viewed as a big risk factor for creditlosses in the northern European countries, but it is likely underestimated.



* Initial assetviews on 2010

- Stronger Usd via a flatter US yieldcurve and an increased volatility for US yields, shift in Asian investment patterns from exports to domestic investments, contributing to global rebalancing.
Short term the most recent Usd strength looks a bit stretched. Shortterm I am selling Usd, looking to go long it once the correction is completed.

- Weaker equity indicies, especially in Europe, Euro related sovereign problems will remain, as will ditto creditplugs, creditlosses, high unemployment.

- Strong asian demand for soft commodities keeping them well supported, not so for other dittos.

- Increased pressure on "pegged" currencies due the global rebalancing process.

- Emerging market currencies increasingly vulnerable due to risk of higher global rates and a stronger Usd, disruptions to the "global recovery" story.

As usual, good luck



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