High event frequency today and tommorrow

* Bank of England, ECB, NFP
Heavy agenda, cant say Im that excited though. Feels like the macro fundamentals are coming into play again, although still wary re the realmoney inflow variable.

On the back of Bernankes speech yesterday, it seems CB;S might become more cautious re their debtload again. This risk stopping the reflation trade in its tracks, dragging commodities, commodity currencies and any other currencies benefitting from higher equity markets down.
Read; AUD, SEK and GBP.


* Latvia
Although I am long Eur/Lvl Fx forwards I dont necessarily view the devaluation as a done deal - yet. The mode in the Latvian government seems to be one of stubbornness. I doubt they will change anything re their FX regime til the IMF tells them to. I believe IMF would rather avoid having to tell them,,

Anyway, this could drag on for a little while. Hopefully, for the people of Latvia´s sake, they will devalue as soon as possible. This would save them prolonged and unnecessary suffering. It will be very hard as it is anyway. Seems there will be a pressconference with members of the Latvian government and the IMF today. It should carry a "positive" message re Latvian financing from the IMF.

Hopefully , IMF will not provide the big transfer without demanding an adjustment of the Latvian exchange rate regime. No strings = mindless at this stage. At least in my view.


* The SEK
It is important to remember that in terms of productivity and competitiveness, the SEK has gained zilch since this crisis started. As most of my readers know, the recent strength is mostly due to the rebound of equity markets. Alas, not sustainable. Especially not as were heading deeper into the seasonally weak June /July.

Another interesting point is the correlation between the Baltic countries GDP growth and the value of the SEK over the last year, it is very high.
With the Baltic GDP growth sinking like a stone, the SEK is lagging. It still has ways to go down as well.


* New positions and position changes
- Took profit on my long Swedbank puts




As always, good luck






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