A test for marketsentiment

* A slew of negative news to test the current bullish market sentiment and bearmarket rally induced risk appetite.

So far the markets have dealt quite well with a batch of bad news;
- The new swineflue epidemic.
- The "leaked" "topsecret" report of the 1Trn Usd worth of toxic debt in Germanbanks.( should not come as too much of a surprise.) However, looking at the liquidity and relatively low riskpremium of the German debt market, it might just not be fully discounted.



*WHO upgraded the swineflu epidemic to 4 or 5 from 3.

In case you didnt know, 5 or 6 means pandemic, a "widespread human infection", which is the highest stage on the WHO alert scale.
According to previous calculations in October by the Worldbank, a flu pandemic is estimated cost 3 Trn Usd, take the lives of 70 Mln people and cut 5% off the global GDP. Not exactly what the doctor ordered. Pardon the punt. Expect increased focus and continued negative newsflow on the swineflu story near term. It should not help riskappetite. The recent very positivemarket sentiment will obviously be tested.



*The precarious situation of the European banking situation still outside the current market focus.
Going forward, there should also be increased focus/awareness on the European banking toxic debt situation as well as the European states capacity to handle it. Although the German GSI badbank plan might be a very effective way of sweeping everything under the rug and significantly improve shortterm risk appetite, there seems to be several obstacles in he way.
Over the next two weeks, more details will come out on any substantial obstacles to this plan.

The mere fact that the German landesbanken are regionalbanks backed up by their respective region could drag it out.
The Euroregion is under severe strain. So far the German Euro engine have fared relatively well, it had better stay that way,,,,


*Positionchanges
- Dipped my toes in long oil ETF;s,



As usual, good luck






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